Employment

We have a diverse economy with regional sensitivities to the southern chaos, real or anticipated. These charts reflect the labour market state after one month. The aggregate is slowing.

Focusing on weekly hours brings the full- and part-time influence to bear. Divergence from the national average is obvious.

NB, with a more diverse economy than its eastern neighbours is doing slightly better than the average. However, export activity will be an issue. NL, dependent on energy related investments, is maintaining what passes for stability with bounces.

Looking west, BC’s growth is envious but slowing. We know the lumber sector is going to be Trumped.

Weekly Earnings

The detailed charts show a similar index presentation in earnings terms showing more convergence but with lower growth in most eastern provinces (p26, p28)

Average wage detail shows the relative incomes by province (p27,29). Because of energy, NL’s average wages are closer to the national average. AB’s average wage line is much higher than the national average. The pandemic bounces came from a substitution away from low-wage employees during the shutdown.

Average weekly earnings are still grown in the key professional and scientific services sector (p17) with above average growth in ON and QC reflecting composition.

Large Province Employment

The aggregate measures are flattening.

ON has made slightly more progress post the 2020 shutdown than the other big provinces.

Construction employment is slacking off in the larger provinces with clear downturn in ON.

Service employment growth is also weakening.

The Daily notes oscillations in education (p52) with bounces in ON. The detailed charts show weakness in wholesale trade (p44) and retail trade (p46). Hospitality is also showing problems (p56).

Vacancy Rates

Vacancy rates are broadly stable across the sectors with health and hospitality having the highest rates.

Multi-year comparisons show that rates are back to norms seen in 2019 (p5).

Summary

The summary is always that we are likely to see weaker performance even if the bank gives investment some room with interest rate cuts.

Detailed Charts

AI is not used. Credit the ideas and charts to Paul Jacobson.

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